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March 28, 2003 |
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On Thursday, the major indexes fell for
the 3rd time in the past 4 sessions as market players
digested the prospect of a longer drawn-out war with
Iraq. Many sectors were directionless, but able to
overcome earlier losses, led by Defense and Biotech
shares. Chip and Banking stocks finished slightly red.
The NASDAQ Composite remains pinned in a trading range
between Monday’s gap crossing at 1,403 and Monday’s low
at 1,368. A break of either of these levels is needed to
clear up the index’s near-term direction. The June S&P
500 contract broke down to a new intraday low for the
week, but was able to make up some lost ground, and
continues to consolidate just above the 38% Fib
retracement level of this month’s rally at 854.50
MAJOR
INDEXES: |
COMP- Reversal at 100-day MA support
INDU- Hammer at 67-day MA support
SPX- Doji at 67-day MA support |
NEW
PLAYS: |
BTK- Reversal at
200-day MA support
DRG- Spinning top at 100-day MA support
GSO- Market structure high at 20-day MA support &
50-day MA resistance
HMO- Hanging man
HUI- Market structure high
IIX- Market structure high
NWX- Testing 20-day MA & 100-day MA support
RLX- Gravestone reversal, market structure high at
200-day MA resistance
SOX- Testing 200-day MA support
XBD- Market structure high at 200-day MA resistance
XTC- Market structure high |
ESM3- Doji at 67-day MA support
NQM3- Bearish engulfing line
SMH- Testing 200-day MA support |
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Swing
Strategy |
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Our strategy is to enter with an initial risk of 2-3%
and a first profit objective of 5-6%. At 5-6%, we want
to take profits on ˝ the position, and then follow the
rest with a trailing stop, preferably just under/over
the previous day's lo/hi. This is nothing but a
guideline. Market conditions and the stock's behavior
should be considered at all times.
If a stock gaps significantly through the entry in
the direction of the trade, wait for it to take out the
first 15-minute high on long trades, or the first
15-minute low on short trades. This simple rule will
ensure that there is follow-through, and will avoid many
gap reversals that are so common.
DISCLAIMER:
This column is an information and education service
only. The information provided herein is not to be
construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any
kind. The information provided has been obtained from
sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to
accuracy or completeness. Tradewinds is not a registered
investment advisor. Tradewinds shall not be liable for
any damages or costs of any type arising out of or in
any way connected with the services of the company.
Reprint or reproduction of this newsletter is strictly
prohibited.
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About
Chris Curran
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Chris
Curran combined his 14 years of trading
knowledge and experience, and his love for the
Ocean to form the concept for Tradewinds (www.tradewindsonline.net).
A native St. Louisana with a background in
Finance, Chris uses a trading style that is a
mix of momentum and technical analysis to create
a Traders Community that is meant to be
educational as well as profitable for its
members. Chris believes that it is of utmost
importance to explain the "hows and
whys" of trading to take some of the
mystery out of the trading phenomenon.
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